Gujarat , Himachal Pradesh 2017 Elections

Now, it’s a matter of numbers for BJP in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh where the Assembly election results have started coming out from Monday morning. With the trends in both states pointing to a BJP win – the Election Commission’s official declaration takes some more time – it is clear that the saffron party has fought a re-win with its back against the wall as pointed out by T360 a few days ago.

BJP will form the governments in both the states, of course. If it is ego badly bruised in the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the party’s real victory is in Himachal Pradesh where, literally, it clinched victory from Congress jaws.

While BJP’s strength in 182-seat Gujarat Assembly came down by about 10 seats, in Himachal Pradesh, it gained at Congress cost. Out of 68 seats at stake, BJP’s final position is likely to be about 48, with the rest in Congress kitty. That means, while the party is able to retain Gujarat for a record fifth time, another state turned saffron.

In broad terms, following conclusions could be drawn from Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh:

1. BJP can’t take voters for granted. Its predictions of winning Gujarat almost hands down (the party chief Amit Shah’s boasting) boomeranged. While its urban base is intact in affluent Gujarat, Saurashtra has dealt a blow. The reason is Congress is able to exploit the unhappiness and discontent among farmers. Modi’s big talk of finance and economy has no use for them. Another, of course, is Hardik Patel’s agitation for reservations.

Lesson: BJP government at the Centre has to look into farmers’ problems more seriously.

2. In Himachal Pradesh, it’s chance for BJP to improve government’s performance. By throwing out Congress, the electorate wants a non-corrupt administration and BJP has to stand up to its claims and promises.

Lesson: These two elections were fought almost single-handedly by Rahul Gandhi. He is being considered as the only leader who can stop Modi juggernaut in its tracks. While it’s true to a large extent, field army is as important as the General. In recent months, particularly after it was confirmed that Rahul was going to be the Congress president, many of his party loyalists (not his) had not been on the same page as Rahul. That’s bad for the party’s future.

3. BJP need to learn a few lessons from Gujarat and a better performed Congress will give a tough time for the ruling party which is likely to have a new face as the state’s chief minister.

Lesson: Rahul Gandhi seems to be going in the right direction, but needs dedicated cadre to fight the 2019 poll battle.