As the elections approaching in one year, there are lot of surveys, analysis and analytics going on to predict how much vote bank the parties have and how many seats they may win in up coming 209 elections.
Recently, an Institute, which claims itself as “polling agency studying electoral trends of India”, released some data on how much vote bank BJP has in Southern States and how many seats NDA may win in 2019 elections. This data assume the importance as this agency was able to predict Karnataka election result almost accurately. As per this report, BJP has only 5% vote bank in Andhra Pradesh.
The agency revealed their results Twitter as they tweeted, “BJP vote shares in Southern states.41% in Karnataka,17% in Telangana,15% in Kerala,5% of voters in Andhra Pradesh voting for BJP.Just 3% of voters in Tamil Nadu prefer BJP in Tamil Nadu.BJP likely to draw a blank in Tamil Nadu”
| State | BJP Vote bank |
|---|---|
| Karnataka | 41% |
| Telangana | 17% |
| Kerala | 15% |
| AP | 5% |
| Tamil Nadu | 3% |
In another tweet, the agency predicted NDA to emerge as single largest party, even though it is not getting complete majority to form the government. It tweeted,
“If Loksabha election held now NDA likely to emerge as single largest with 243 out of 502 seats in which tracker poll was done but likely to loose majority. “
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| BJP | 218 |
| NDA Allies | 25 |
| Cong | 76 |
| Cong allies | 38 |
| Others | 145 |
However numbers are based on the survey done in 502 constituencies only. Data of another 40 constituencies is not yet out.
vote share prediction of the country in upcoming general elections also review and as per that NDA, along with its allies. going to get maximum share that is 39%.
| Party | Vote bank across India |
|---|---|
| NDA | 39% |
| UPA | 31% |
| Others | 24% |
| Undecided Voters | 6% |
The numbers look almost closer to reality. However, there might be many changes in last one year and final numbers may vary.
