TDP’s tie up with Congress in Telangana elections has been a point of debate in political circles ever since it was announced. There have been arguments in favor of and against the tie up. Some said, it will be a death blow to TDP as it was founded on anti-Congress philosophy but some others said, it both parties have strong cadres at grass roots and so if people are convinced with the alliance, vote percentage in favor of that alliance is greatly improved. However, people are not sure whether this alliance will be appreciated or rejected by people.
However, Republic-CVoter National Approval Ratings survey tried to find what will happen if Congress and TDP unite. The survey focused primarily on Lok Sabha seats. The survey also compared the position of TDP immediately after exiting NDA vis a vis TDP’s position in 2019 if it allies with Congress. When TDP walked out of Modi led NDA government citing the cause of injustice meted out the residual state of Andhra Pradesh in the regime of Modi, the same Republic-CVoter National Approval Ratings survey concluded that walking out of the NDA would cost the TDP. The survey reported that, TDP will now get only 4 out of 25 Loka Sabha seats in the state. Remaining 21 seats would go to Jagan’s YSRCP as per that survey. The survey reported that, because of walking out of NDA, not only TDPs seats come down from 15 (in 2015) to 4 but also its vote percentage comes from 40% to 31.4%. This means Chandrababu Naidu’s walk out has cost him 11 seats and 9.4% of the vote-share.
| Mar’2018 Survey | |
|---|---|
| Loss of seats for TDP (as per Survey) | 11 (From 15 to 4 seats) |
| Loss of votes for TDP (as per Survey) | 9.4% (from 40 to 31.4%) |
The same Republic-CVoter National Approval Ratings did another survey now in October 2018 and focused on the question – what will happen in 2019 elections if Congress and TDP unite. The survey concluded that if the TDP and the Congress unite, UPA will become much stronger because both the INC and the TDP will be gaining individually. The survey predicted that such alliance helps Congress, that currently has zero Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh and also TDP. TDP is likely to get 12 seats i.e. up by 8 seats since walking out NDA. But this would also mean YSRCP will still get 13 seats in Lok Sabha elections in 2019.
| Oct’2018 Survey | ||
|---|---|---|
| Gain of seats for TDP (as per Survey) | 8 (From 4 to 12 seats) |
Overall, the survey suggested that Rahul Gandhi should take up proactive role and get Chandra Babu into UPA fold. As of now, these are the predictions as per Republic-CVoter National Approval Ratings and we will have to wait and see how will be the actual results.
