Exit poll reports from all national media channels and agencies are clearly indicating a tremendous victory for the ruling TRS in the state of Telangana. All exist poll surveys clearly positioned TRS from 65-95 which differed in each individual report. However, our very own election octopus Lagadapati Rajgopal has a complete different report which contradicted all the national surveys. Lagadapati was sure that Prajakutami will have more chances to form the government. Here is why Lagadapati surveys has more ground reality than the other surveys.
1. Independents : From Pre poll itself Lagadapti has been telling about the victory chances of independents are more than general expectations. He also gave out names of Mallareddy rangareddy from ibramhimpatnam, Anil jadav from bhoath, Shiva kumar reddy from Narayanpet , jalandar reddy from makthal, Gaddam Vinod from Bellampalli as strong contenders. He also stated 2 more candidates can win as independents. The ground reality about this sounds true. All the names mentioned above have high winnings chances,ignoring all major parties in their constituencies. When such independents or unrecognised party candidates are in a number which is more than 5, why did any national exit poll ignore this ? It also show lack of depth in their surveys.
2. MIM wrong interpretation : Every survey is telling MIM would likely win 7-8 seats or atleast 7 considering, no one could enter into their seven seats. But the ground reality is MIM is facing serious issues with nampally constituency. The congress candidate from there is giving tough fight to MIM and its week in another constituency of its base. So,Chances of MIM winning may be 6 which is rightly predicted by Lagadapti.
3. BJP’s Expansion: When every exist poll tell us the weak performance of BJP and putting them less than four, Lagadapti is the only person to number than more than five. It’s true that ground sounds that BJP might win few seats in districts. Bandi sanjay from Karimnagar, Achary from Kalwakurthy sankineni from Suryapet have been top in the race. Few more seats in districts are favour for BJP which can rise their chances for 5-7 even if they loose few in Hyderabad.
4. Unpredictable voters : Lagadapti kept telling multiple time that voters have been very tough. RG flash team has struggled to find the pulse of this place. It’s true there was lot of silent voting and people have not choosed to say whom they voted. This is the major reason why surveys differed.
5 . Anti incumbency : Exist poll which are giving huge number to TRS have somewhere forgeted about the anti incumbency votes and Anti candidates votes. The ground is not so clear for TRS in this matter, so winning such huges seats till 85 will not be possible with such a feed back from the ground. RG also kept telling there are different opinions on the government functioning but there is also lot of anti incumbency which cant be ignored.
– Kanthu Agasthya (The writer is a senior journalist with TV9 and has covered Telangana elections from the ground.)
