Chandrababu Naidu has strategically opted out of the election race in Warangal Lok Sabha by-election. Usually an election, for that matter any election, is an opportunity for political parties to prove their strengths (or expose weaknesses).
But the Warangal bypoll has come more as a boon than a bane for Naidu personally and the TDP politically.
Here are the reasons why Naidu stayed away even from the campaign, even as the National Democratic Alliance candidate — BJP nominee Dr Devaiah — is testing his fortunes in Saturday’s polling.
1. Telugu Desam is not as strong as the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and the Congress in Telangana in general and Warangal to be more precise.
2. Chandrababu Naidu bought peace with his bête noire And Telangana counterpart K Chandrasekhar Rao recently by calling on him personally and ensuring his participation in the grandiose foundation laying of Amaravathi, Andhra’s new capital city. He may have to reciprocate the gesture by attending the proposed Chandee Yagam by KCR this month-end, if invited. He needs to have face to see KCR eye to eye.
3. Chandrababu Naidu was personally embarrassed in the #CashforVote case which continues to hang on his head like the Sword of Democles. His political experience prompted him not to do anything that rubs KCR on the wrong side. As if to buttress this standpoint, the TDP leaders too did not launch any vociferous criticism against the TRS and the Chief Minister KCR. In a way, they soft-pedalled, in a complete departure of their usual style of spewing venom.
4. None of the senior Union Ministers too evinced so much of an interest to go for a campaign. This is a reason enough for Naidu to show restraint and prevent his party men from demoing their overzealous styles of electioneering. Their redoubtable support to the BJP nominee is just a matter of fact effort and an act of honouring coalition dharma, thereby not displeasing the mighty Narendra Modi.
5. Even if Naidu goes for a campaign and launches a diatribe against KCR, the chances of victory of the NDA candidate are almost dismal. This would also widen the schism between the Telangana TDP leaders, as they are now in a state of confusion and a tug of war of political oneupmanship. It isn’t worth to drive a further wedge within the party by letting his campaign tour to be used to catalyse the simmering bickering.
6. If the BJP comes third after the Congress — this is very likely — when the results are declared, the TDP can use the stick of “I said so” against the Central leadership of the BJP and send a message loud and clear that it cannot take Naidu easy.
7. If the BJP nominee stands fourth after the YSR Congress, the TDP can take an excuse saying that it would have been the other way round had it been in the fray directly instead of playing second fiddle to the BJP.
8. The by-election scenario can become a recce type of exercise for the TDP to weigh its options by the time the polls to Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation toward early next year so that it can assess whether or not to go with the BJP in the city elections.
9. If Chandrababu Naidu campaigns and the BJP nominee loses — which is almost certain — it may cast its shadow on the GHMC elections and deflate the party’s morale. He would then lose an opportunity to campaign in the GHMC elections.
10. Last, but not the least, Naidu may have apprehended that the TRS leadership may be constrained to talk about the infamous #CashforVote case and the TDP would have been under tremendous pressure to respond to the same.
Naidu, thus, insulated himself from numerous ramifications with the help of a caveat of political possibilities.
