The Madras High Court today pronounced its verdict in the case of disqualifying 18 AIADMK MLAs who are supporting Dinakaran. The verdict is analyzed as shocker to Dinakaran, at the moment as it helped Palaniswamy government to continue. However, there are many other things to be considered to conlude the impact of this verdict.
Number game:
Tamil Nadu assembly’s total strength is 234. Jayalalitha, in 2016 won 136 seats for his party. The opposition DMK, along with its allies, has 98 members in the house. But 2 MLAs passed away (one of them is late DMK chief M Karunanidhi) making the strength to 232. If we exclude speaker, strength comes to 231 and magic number to survive the government is 116.
Disqualification of 18 MLAs:
In August,2017 19 MLAs supporting Dhinakaran, withdraw their support to Palaniswami and met governor. AIADMK Whip lodges a complaint with Speaker seeking action against the 19 MLAs who had submitted letter to the governor withdrawing their support to Palaniswami. Following this, Speaker issues notice to 19 MLAs and one of them came back to Palaniswamy camp. So speaker disqualified remaining 18 MLAs and they moved to court on speaker decision.
Implications of verdict:
Had verdict come in favor of Dinakaran i.e. had the court pronounced against speaker’s decision, Palaniswamy government would have fallen immediately. However, now as court upheld speaker’s decision, strength of assembly came down to 214 and so magic number came down to 107. Palani can comfortably pass the motion of confidence, if held. In nutshell, court verdict saved Palaniswamy government.
TTV Dinakaran reacts:
“It is not a setback for us. This is an experience, we will face the situation. Future course of action will be decided after meeting with the 18 MLAs,”Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) chief Dinakaran says.”My personal opinion is that we will go for elections. But I can’t say it for others. I will sit with the MLAs and then only we’ll come to a conclusion,” says Dinakaran. He also ruled out any possibility of his party merging with EPS-OPS camp in any situation.
Can Palanyswamy government survive 5 years comfortably?
Now magic number came down to 107 and Palaniswamy has numbers to survive government. There are total 20 assembly seats vacant now (18 disqualified + 2 died). DMK and allies already has 98 seats. If Palaniswamy candidates lose in all these 20 seats, strength of opponents grow to 118 in assembly of 234, which means fall of government. But if they win at least couple of seats, government will survive exactly on magic number. But as it is ruling party and BJP, party ruling at centre, also supporting it, the government may survive somehow. But it is like walking on a tight rope until next elections.
