Kumaraswamy is forming government in Karnataka with the support of Congress Party. Even though BJP stood at first place with 104 seats, Congress at 2nd place with 78 seats, both these parties did not get the magic number required to form government. So, one of these parties must support of JDS that stood at third place with 48 seats. Now this has been discussed a lot in Telugu States and some people opine the same situation may repeat in Andhra Pradesh in the form of Pawan Kalyan’s Janasena party.
Pawan Kalyan recently stated that there will be a triangular fight in Andhra Pradesh in 2019 elections. TDP, YSRCP and Janasena will be front faces of the triangular fight and small parties like communists, Congress and BJP may form alliance with one of these three parties. Even if they don’t become part of alliance with these parties, they may not impact the final result as they do not have vote bank in Andhra Pradesh now. So , the debate is that if TDP and YSRP don’t get full majority, Pawan Kalyan Janasena party may become crucial after elections.
If we see the result of 2014, from Srikakulam to Guntur, out of 101 seats, YSRCP got only 24 seats in these 7 districts. In the remaining 6 districts, Prakasham to Anantapur, YSRCP got 42 seats, making it total to 66 seats. So, YSRCP’s weakness in this Coastal and North Andhra was fairly exposed in 2014 itself. In 2014, TDP got total of 103 seats and most of them came from this Coastal and North Andhra. Also, many people including TDP and ysrcp leaders earlier commented that this happened because of caste equations and Pawan’s support.
At this moment, not even TDP fans are predicting full majority for TDP in 2019. Even though YSRCP claiming that it will get full majority, the reality is that YSR CP is still weak in coastal Andhra and North Andhra. Even in Rayalaseema where it is said to be strong, Jagan’s party lost Nandyal seat during by elections. So people are not completely believing the claims of YSR CP. Pawan Kalyan, recently started saying he will form the government but everyone knows that at this moment he doesn’t have cadre or leaders for his party and if he becomes in king maker, that will be his biggest achievement. It is to be noted that JDS has very strong cadre, even though it is at 3rd place. Pawan doesn’t have such strong cadre, though he has support from his community and from his film fans.
There is still almost one year for Andhra Pradesh elections in 2019 and there may be several twist and turns in this one year time. So we have to wait and see if JDS like scenario will repeat in Andhra Pradesh or not. it might be difficult to predict whether this will happen or not, but it is not really difficult to guess which party will ally with Pawan if such situation arises.
-ZURAN
