The 2024 Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections exit polls have sparked significant interest and debate. Various agencies have released their predictions, each with its credibility based on past performance. Here’s a detailed look at the predictions and the track record of these agencies.
Below are the agencies predicting the TDP-BJP-Jansena alliance winning the 2024 elections:
KK Survey:
2024 Prediction:
As per KK Survey, TDP-JSP-BJP alliance is winning with 161 seats, YSRCP is confining to 14 seats. However, these numbers seem to be exaggerated.
Credibility:
KK Survey gained popularity with its accurate prediction in 2019, forecasting 135 seats for YSRCP, which closely matched the actual result. This local agency is highly regarded for its precise insights during 2019 as several national-level agencies also failed to predict YSRCP’s popularity in 2019.
Peoples Pulse:
2024 Prediction:
TDP-JSP-BJP alliance is winning 2024 election with 111-135 seats, YSRCP to get only 45-60 seats.
Credibility:
In 2019, Peoples Pulse predicted YSRCP would win 112 seats and TDP 59 seats. Their predictions were less accurate but still notable as they predicted YSRCP’s win.
Chanakya Strategies:
2024 Prediction:
TDP-JSP-BJP alliance is winning 114-125 seats, YSRCP will get only 39-49 seats.
Credibility:
Chanakya Strategies accurately predicted the NDA’s success in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, forecasting 350 seats for the NDA alliance.
RTV Exit Poll:
2024 Prediction:
TDP-JSP-BJP alliance winning 144 seats, YSRCP will fail miserably and get only 31 seats.
Credibility:
Spearheaded by former TV9 CEO Ravi Prakash, RTV Exit Poll is seen by some as pro-TDP. Despite this, Ravi Prakash’s efforts to rebuild his reputation suggest thorough groundwork.
Pulse Today and RISE:
Pulse Today: TDP-JSP-BJP alliance winning 121-129 seats, YSRCP with 45-54 seats.
RISE: TDP-JSP-BJP alliance winning 113-122 seats, YSRCP with 48-60 seats.
Both agencies provide moderate ranges, reflecting competitive landscapes.
Below are the agencies predicting YSRCP winning the 2024 elections:
Jan Mat Polls
2024 Prediction:
YSRCP will win 95-103 seats, TDP-JSP-BJP alliance will get only 67-75 seats.
Credibility:
Known for accurate predictions in several state elections and the 2019 NDA victory.
Aaraa:
2024 Prediction:
YSRCP winning 94-104 seats, TDP-JSP-BJP alliance with 71-81 seats.
Credibility:
Mixed track record; accurately predicted Congress’s performance in Telangana 2023 but previously overestimated YSRCP in 2014 with 110 seats. Also, Aaraa was directly associated with YSRCP between 2013-2017 as a political strategist before it was replaced by Prashant Kishore’s IPAC before the 2019 elections.
Center for Psephological Studies (CPS)
2024 Prediction:
YSRCP winning 97-108 seats, TDP-JSP-BJP alliance with 66-78 seats.
Credibility:
Accurate in the 2019 AP elections but failed miserably in the recent Telangana polls as it predicted BRS to win.
Partha Chanakya
2024 Prediction:
YSRCP winning 110-120 seats, TDP-JSP-BJP alliance with 55-65 seats.
Credibility: Recently started by coming out from parent agency “Chanakya” and so lacks a significant track record.
Aatma Sakshi
2024 Prediction:
YSRCP winning 98-116 seats, TDP-JSP-BJP alliance with 59-77 seats.
Credibility: Often criticized as a pro-YSRCP agency, questioned for its biases.
With varied predictions and mixed past performances, the 2024 Andhra Pradesh exit polls have set the stage for an intriguing wait until the actual results on June 4th. While some agencies predict a strong showing for the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance, others foresee a resilient YSRCP. The credibility of each agency will soon be tested as the true pulse of the AP voter is revealed.
PS: India Today- Axis My India is the topmost agency in India as of now as the agency predicted multiple elections accurately. It is yet to reveal AP assembly election predictions but it has revealed predictions for Lok Sabha as per which, YSRCP will get 2-4 MP seats and NDA will get 21-23 MP seats.
– ZURAN (@CriticZuran)
