The congress may well be pleased to describe the Karnataka by-poll results as an illustration of emerging trend in the country as a run up to 2019. But, any such extrapolation is a sweeping generalization that can ultimately end up as an erroneous assumption. The BJP would like to dismiss the peoples mandate in the by-polls as an aberration caused by local specific factors. Such public posturing may be a political compulsion for the saffron party to keep its morale high. But, any such complacency can prove to be costlier for the ruling party when elections are round the corner.
There are two specific reasons for this. Firstly, despite alarmist predictions, the Congress-JDS combine could not only survive but inflict a humiliating defeat on Modi-Yeddyurappa led BJP, revealing the potential challenge the state level Mahagatbandhans could pose for the NDA juggernaut.
Secondly, these by-elections held across different regions of the Karnataka when seen in the context of similar such by election results in states like UP, Rajasthan, Punjab, Maharashtra ,etc since 2014 clearly reveal perceptible shift of voters away from the Modi mania.
Back home in Telangana , the Congress is jubilant as it comes close on the heels of elections. The Congress is trying to stitch together other opposition parties to take on TRS . The Karnataka model where the Congress gave the Chief Minister position to a junior ally is used as an illustration of congress magnanimity towards allies. But, there is world of difference between Karnataka and Telangana . The Congress allies in Telangana are not as strong as JD(S) . The BJP that is facing series of reverses elsewhere in the country is not its opponent. The party has to fight KCR regime, which many reports indicate to be still popular among the electorate. Besides, by-polls and general elections operate on different algorithms.
Yet, the results of Karnataka by-polls certainly enthused the Congress cadres in Telangana. Especially, its critics across the country till recently were busy writing obituaries for the grand old party .Meanwhile, the by-poll results have lot to mean for Karnataka and have a bearing for the country too. The BJP won 17 out of 28 seats in 2014 Loksabha elections from this state. The congress and JD(S) contested separately in 2014.
But, now the overwhelming electoral arithmetic emanating from congress alliance with JD(S) can send shivers down the saffron spine. The BJP is expected to lose 10 to 12 seats if the same situation continues and the two of its rivals fight together.
The BJP was only hoping that the Congress and JD(S) would fall apart soon due to the inherent contradictions within the coalition . Nothing of that sort has happened and the present victories would further cement the ties between two parties and the crisis in the coalition is highly unlikely at least until 2019 general elections.
Besides, the BJP has always been maintaining that it received popular mandate and the Congress -JD(S) combine snatched away the popular mandate by opportunistic alliance. But, the electorate of Karnataka have decisively dismissed this argument by giving massive mandates for the ruling coalition partners.
The BJP suffered huge erosion in its vote. In Shivamogga , the BJP’s strongman won in 2014 by a margin of whopping 3.6 lakh votes. But, now, his son, despite father’s total effort could retain the seat for the BJP by only 52,000 votes indicating a huge swing away from the saffron party as compared to 2014 . Similarly, the congress wrested the Bellary seat from BJP by margin of over two lakh votes defeating the mining mafia in its own bastion. The extent of margins clearly reveal that the by-poll verdict is beyond the advantageous arithmetic for the Congress which means BJP has a lot to worry about as 2019 fast approaches.
( Prof.K. Nageshwar is India’s noted political analyst. He is a former member of the Telangana Legislative Council and professor in the Department of Communication & Journalism, Osmania University, Hyderabad, India )
