CPS – centre for psephology studies published its survey results for upcoming Telangana elections. Top news channel telecast this survey results and they even had discussion with the psephologist.
Survey methodology:
The survey results are one sided , predicting massive victory for TRS party. The CPS claimed the survey is done between November 25th to 29th i.e. 3 days after the deadline for withdrawing nominations on November 22nd. Because, surveys done before the finalisation of candidates may not be accurate. Also CPS claimed it had taken feedback from 2,86,567 people and it included all 119 constituencies.
Vote percentage for parties as per this survey results are as below:
TRS: 49.7%
Praja Kootami: 32.3%
BJP: 9.1%
MIM: 2.4%
Others: 6.5%
Number of seats for parties as per this survey results are as below:
TRS: 94-104
Praja Kootami: 16-21
BJP: 1-2
MIM: 7
Others: 1
Some of the salient points from the CPS psephologist:
- Allying with TDP is the biggest blunder congress did
- Many key leaders in Praja Kootami also will lose elections this time
- TDP graph has been consistently going south since 2016 in Telangana and most of it’s vote bank has already been eroded
- CPS psephologist also claim that they predicted 159 seats for Congress party in 2009 and actual result is very very close to this number. Also they claimed that they predicted 98 seats for TRS in GHMC elections which is also very very close to the actual result.
Is this survey to counter Lagadapati survey?
There is no doubt that, there is some positive mood among people towards TRS and definitely TRS has an edge. But this survey raised many doubts among people as it predicted abnormal numbers like 94 to 104 seats for TRS. Moreover, recently Andhra octopus Lagadapati revealed that many independent MLAs are going to win the elections this time and that created lot of tremors in political circles. After Lagadapati statements, many people started doubting the prospects of TRS. So many observers are seeing this CPS survey telecast in top news channel as a counter to Lagadapati survey.
How far this survey will impact voters?
Had the survey predicted somewhere between 70 to 80 seats for TRS, people might have believed this survey. But 94 to 104 seats for TRS definitely looks biased and some people even doubt whether this is a sponsored survey. Especially because of the fact that people of Andhra Pradesh or Telangana never heard of this institute’s name before, even though CPS is saying that they have predicted 2009 elections and GHMC elections with utmost accuracy. Moreover, the numbers they have predicted for TRS are exactly same as what KCR has been saying. On the other hand, most of the other surveys also predicted TRS having an edge compared to other parties but none of them predicted such whopping numbers for TRS.
Anyway most of the people might have already decided regarding home to cast their vote. We will have to wait for one more week to see who will have the last laugh in Telangana.
-ZURAN (CriticZuran)
