We have discussed in the previous articles that there has been a debate on how much vote percentage Janasena is going to have. We have seen in previous article that PRP had 19.19% vote bank in 175 constituencies of AP in 2009 ( https://www.telugu360.com/how-much-vote-bank-does-janasena-have-part-2/ ). We will see the arguments for and against the point – Janasena will get more than this 19.19 % or not.
What Janasena opponents say:
But there is no guarantee that this 19.19% vote bank of PRP will shift to Janasena because of below reasons:
First time benefit of doubt: When Chiranjeevi’s party founded people had interest to give it a chance for the new party, but after seeing PRP debacle, people lost interest in such part time parties and this will work against Janasena
Not all 16.22% because of Chiranjeevi: Even though Chiranjeevi got 16.22% vote bank (total AP), not all is because of Chiranjeevi. Leaders like Shobha Nagireddy, Katasani, Ganta (1st place), Tammineni Sitharam, Jyothula Nehru (2nd place) – all of them got votes because of their own image and cadre rather than Chiranjeevi. If such big leaders don’t join Janasena, Janasena’s vote% will be definitely less than PRP.
Leaders are now more careful: When PRP launched, many big leaders from TDP and INC joined PRP and most of them became politically extinct later. Some leaders like actor Krishnam Raju later opined, joining PRP was a historical mistake. Because of that experience, now big leaders are more careful in taking decision of joining new parties. Without leaders, Pawan can’t run the show alone for so long and there will be drop in total vote % too.
Pawan character: Pawan is inconsistent compared to Chiranjeevi. None knows how he behaves. This may hamper party prospects. Matured voter will re-think before voting for Janasena.
Finally, Janasena opponents conclude that – It is silly to think all those who voted for PRP will vote again for Janasena and people can’t be cheated again and again and so Janasena may end-up max 5 to 10% vote bank that too because of the fans from his caste and youth fans from other castes.
Janasena fans say:
Fans of Janasena, on the other hand, predict more vote% than PRP 2009 experience. They say below reasons
Sticky vote bank of PRP: People who voted for Chiranjeevi were all hard-core fans and they voted PRP despite knowing PRP will not win. They voted despite all the negative propaganda of media on PRP. This vote bank is “sticky” vote bank and will not disappear except for 1 or 2%
No YSR: Many opine YSR was very strong in 2009 because of Arogya sri and other scemes and so many fans of Chiranjeevi too voted for INC in 2009. But now CBN is not that strong (reportedly) and Jagan is no YSR and this helps janasena get its due share in vote bank and so it will be definitely more vote % than PRP.
Pawan vs Chiru: Pawan got the image of genuine person unlike Chiranjeevi who got the image of “commercial person”. This is evident from the fact that when PRP formed, many people from film industry including – Dasari, Jeevitha-Rajasekhar, Mohan Babu, Narasimha Raju, Tammareddy, Natti Kumar, and many more lambasted Chiranjeevi on various aspects. On the other hand, Pawan is getting appreciation from many in the industry especially for his character and helping nature. Moreover Chiranjeevi had no knowledge on issues but Pawan worked on issues like Uddanam that helped him gain good image
Bifurcation and Kapu factor: Bifurcation helped change caste equations. In united AP, Telangana region had more BC population and coastal region had more Kapu population. But bifurcation disturbed this balance and now AP has high % of Kapu caste and this may help Pawan and Janasena. Kapu vote bank may tilt result this time and it is assessed, Kapu impact on final result will be even more this time compared to 2009. BJP leader Manikyala Rao recently commented that 80% of Kapu voters are with Pawan now. In 2009, most of the kapu voters did not go with PRP because of various reasons like Polavaram, YSR factor, Kapu icons like Dasari opposing Chiru etc. But no numbers on how many Kapu voters
PRP seems to have become an asset rather than liability as Pawan seems to have learnt from PRP mistakes. So far he didn’t have any major self-goal. He is slowly but rightly building his base.
Conclusion: While Janasena opponents rubbish Pawan getting anything more than 5 – 10% votes and not more than 15-20 seats, Janasena fans predict more than 20% vote bank and expect him to become King maker like JDS Kumaraswamy with good number of seats in north andhra and Godavari districts.
Click here of How much vote bank does Janasena have? ( Part-1)
But politics are too dynamic to analyze 1 year before elections. We will have to monitor the events, twists and turns in next one year and see which leaders are joining Janasena. We may get closer numbers by next January or February.
-ZURAN
