Riding on the popular mandate it received in the assembly elections, the TRS hopes to play a key role post 2019. KCR is expected to enter national politics if he manages to win sizable MP seats. He is already on a national political pilgrimage to rally as many regional and smaller parties as possible behind his idea of non-congress, non-BJP political platform.
An analysis of the voting patterns in the assembly elections indicate that TRS is expected to win 14 out of the 17 seats while its ally MIM can retain the lone Hyderabad seat it won in 2014. The congress-TDP alliance will find it hard to win the remaining two seats as it won only marginally higher votes than TRS within these parliamentary segments . These two seats are Khammam and Mahabubabad where the congress led people’s front polled marginally higher number of votes than TRS.
But, there are many intervening factors that differentiate mandate in assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The parliament elections will be five months after the assembly elections, which is a too longer period given the experience of BJP,AAP in Delhi politics.
While the assembly elections were a sort of referendum on KCR, the Lok Sabha elections narrative will be around Modi. Precisely for this reason KCR resorted to premature dissolution of state assembly paving the way for early elections. The strategy has yielded rich dividend for KCR.
The TRS has got an edge over its nearest rival in 14 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in recent assembly elections. The TRS margin is substantially higher ranging from one to three lakhs. Even if one discounts the factors that distinguish Lok Sabha elctions form assembly elections, yet , the TRS is expected to register a win in most of the seats, if not all, where it got an edge.
On the contrary, the congress led opposition combine comprising of TDP, TJS, CPI got only few thousands of votes more than TRS in the two seats- Khammam and Mahabubabad where it got an edge. As a result there can be many a slip between the cup and the lip for the congress.
Meanwhile, the TRS has already started its political manoeuvring in the undivided Khammam district which covers the above two parliament segments. The ruling party is all set to induct opposition MLAs from this region into its fold and one of them is expected to be made even a minister. This operation Aakarsh would render TDP unrepresented in the state assembly though it won two seats in the recent elections.
Besides, the four party opposition alliance is at the cross roads. The possibility of keeping the kutami intact for the Lok Sabha elections remains a challenge as both of its allies TDP and CPI would demand Khammam where the congress has some hope of winning. The TDP which got decimated in the assembly elections could demonstrate some popularity within the Khammam Lok Sabha segment only. The CPI in alliance with the congress contested Khammam Lok Sabha seat in 2014 where YSR congress candidate won, who later defected to TRS. The YSR Congress has already announced its intentions to not to contest in Telangana. Thus, the congress and its allies would find seat sharing a challenging task. Thus, is the advantage for TRS in Lok Sabha polls too.
However, the challenge for TRS is in defending its position vis-a-vis BJP and Narendra Modi in national politics.
( Prof.K. Nageshwar is India’s noted political analyst. He is a former member of the Telangana Legislative Council and professor in the Department of Communication & Journalism, Osmania University, Hyderabad, India )
