The 2024 Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections, held on May 13th, have sparked intense anticipation and speculation. As the state eagerly awaits the exit polls due on June 1st and the actual results on June 4th, the political atmosphere is charged with uncertainty and excitement. This election season has seen significant shifts in alliances and strategies, with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Jana Sena Party (JSP) joining forces to challenge the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP). The TDP-BJP-JSP alliance is banking heavily on the anti-incumbency factor to unseat the YSRCP. On the other hand, the YSRCP, led by Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, is relying on its extensive welfare schemes to secure another term.
The big question on everyone’s mind is whether the upcoming exit polls can accurately capture the pulse of Andhra Pradesh’s voters. One can revisit the 2019 exit polls vis-à-vis actual results to understand this.
Revisiting 2019 Exit polls:
The 2019 Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections were closely watched, with various agencies conducting exit polls to predict the outcome. The results of these exit polls varied, reflecting the intense competition between the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). Here’s a detailed look at what the exit polls predicted and how these predictions compared with the actual results.
Below are the agencies that predicted YSRCP’s win:
• India Today-Axis My India: YSRCP: 130-135 seats, TDP: 37-40 seats, Janasena -1
• Times Now-CNX: YSRCP: 111 seats, TDP: 63 seats
• Republic-C Voter: YSRCP: 120-130 seats, TDP: 45-55 seats
• News18-IPSOS: YSRCP: 110-125 seats, TDP: 50-61 seats
• Center for Psephologists: YSRCP 135, TDP 37-40, Janasena 0-1
Below are the agencies that predicted the TDP win:
• TV5: TDP 105, YSRCP 68, Janasena 2
• INSS media: TDP 118, YSRCP 52
• Lagadapati (LRG Flash team): TDP 90-110, YSRCP 65-79
Actual Results
YSRCP: 151 seats
TDP: 23 seats
Jana Sena Party (JSP): 1 seat
Analysis of Predictions vs. Actual Results
The exit polls varied significantly in their predictions, with some being closer to the actual results than others. Here’s a breakdown:
India Today-Axis My India: This poll was the most accurate, closely predicting the overwhelming victory of YSRCP. It forecasted 130-135 seats for YSRCP, with the actual result being 151 seats, which was within a reasonable margin of error.
Times Now-CNX: This poll underestimated the strength of YSRCP and overestimated TDP’s performance. It predicted 111 seats for YSRCP, which was significantly lower than the actual 151 seats.
Republic-C Voter: This prediction was also fairly accurate, estimating 120-130 seats for YSRCP. While it was lower than the actual result, it still captured the overall trend of a YSRCP victory.
News18-IPSOS: This poll predicted 110-125 seats for YSRCP, which was lower than the actual result but still indicated a clear win for YSRCP.
The surveys that predicted TDP’s victory like the TV5 survey, Lagadapati Survey, and INSS media survey lost credibility among people. But on the day of the exit polls, there was some confusion. Although several agencies predicted YSRCP’s win, almost the same number of agencies predicted TDP’s win. So, this time, the same pattern may also be repeated. The variations in the exit poll results underscore the complexities and uncertainties inherent in electoral predictions. We need to wait for a couple of days to see the exit polls of 2024.
-ZURAN (@CriticZuran)
