Chaitanya Jayanti ( Chaitanya has worked in Congress party and was a chief speech writer to Rahul Gandhi. He completed a degree in economics from Wharton School of Business, USA )

During the last week, Andhra Pradesh shook with protests for Special Category Status (SCS) much in the way Tamil Nadu did during the jallikattu ban. It was a rare moment of mass activism when on Republic Day, opposition parties and scores of youth took to the streets and demonstrated against the TDP and BJP government for failing to fulfill their promise of granting SCS to the state. When police were given orders to arrest protestors, it became clear that Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu was obviously afraid of the movement that was forming against him.

The TDP government is in a precarious position right now. Over two years have passed since it came power, and yet there is little concrete substance to show for it. Capital city development has staggered slowly and has been fraught with corruption. Overemphasis on Coastal Andhra development has triggered backlash in Rayalaseema. The BJP has been extremely unhelpful in providing badly needed funds for AP’s development, making Naidu appear weak before Delhi. If the protests last week were any indicator of the approval ratings of the TDP, there is a very strong possibility that Naidu will not be given a second term, and Jaganmohan Reddy will head the next government.

Yet there is a wild card factor that not enough people are discussing in AP – Pawan Kalyan. Over the last two years, and increasingly in the last few months, Pawan Kalyan has emerged as an extremely vocal critic of the TDP and BJP governments. He attacked the Andhra Pradesh government for ignoring kidney disease in Uddanam, addressed massive rallies across AP fiercely attacking the NDA for not giving Special Status and cheating the people of Andhra Pradesh, and recently played a big organizing role in the Republic Day protests. Today, Pawan Kalyan has become at least a thorn in the side of the government, and at most, a truly disruptive force in AP politics, someone whose political decisions could introduce a new power center in Andhra Pradesh.

There are several things going for Pawan Kalyan.

First, Pawan Kalyan has amassed a very sizeable mass following that simply cannot be ignored. His supporters elevate him to a sort of God-like symbol, as ill-defined phrases like “Pawanism” indicate. There is a mythical cult that developed around the man. There is reason to believe that Pawan Kalyan himself rejects these labels, but he certainly does not hesitate to capitalize on them. In recent times Pawan Kalyan has mobilized this crowd with respect to Uddanam kidney issue, and also recently with the Special Category Status protests. The cult of personality around Pawan Kalyan is an asset that other “reformers”, like Jayaprakash Narayan, did not have.

Secondly, Pawan Kalyan has a strategy to his political work. He tackles issues that he can win and/or which have high emotive value. His biggest victory so far has been on the Uddanam kidney issue, and now, he is going after Special Category Status. Both of these have given him the image of being an aggressive politician who is not afraid to call a spade a spade.

Finally, and perhaps the biggest reason why he is politically disruptive, is his personality. It is fair to say that that there is nobody like Pawan Kalyan in Andhra politics today. He is a rogue, and is known to model himself off revolutionaries like Che Guevara. It is clear that he is not interested in money or power, and sincerely cares for the welfare of the people of Andhra Pradesh. This means that other parties cannot bully, intimidate, or tempt him with posts or money. If they want to deal with Pawan Kalyan, it will have to be on an issue-level, not a personal one.

All of these put Pawan Kalyan in stark contrast to the current set of politicians in AP. More poignantly, it paints him in contrast to his brother, Chiranjeevi, who is perceived across AP as a reformer who sold out for power. In 2014, Pawan Kalyan’s support for the TDP was seen to have tipped the scales in its favor, giving Naidu the needed margin to form the government over the YSRCP. In 2019, it is entirely possible that Pawan Kalyan’s role can be even larger.

At the same time, Pawan Kalyan has some obstacles ahead of him if he wants to be a successful politician.

• Despite being active in the last few years, Pawan Kalyan is still very inexperienced compared to other leaders like Naidu or Jaganmohan Reddy, who each has years of on the ground experience. Pawan Kalyan has already displayed proof of possessing a political instinct, but he will need to assemble a team of advisors who have experience and can guide his strategy if he wants to compete with the TDP or YSRCP.

• Secondly, as neither an elected official nor an official politician, Pawan Kalyan has the luxury of freedom. He does not have to take a position on every issue nor does he have to respond rapidly to every issue as it comes forth. He can both cherry-pick issues that he feels comfortable with, and take time to formulate his position on them. But as a politician, Pawan Kalyan will be at the mercy of events that will necessitate a quick response from him. As he aims to become a more serious politician, he will need to become more responsive and available than he is now.

• Someone like Pawan Kalyan can be very good for Andhra Pradesh. He is selfless and wants to bring accountability into the political system. And judging by the last few years, people are paying attention to his politics. But over the next few years, he will have to give serious attention to the team he surrounds himself with and how much time he is willing to give to political action.