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YSR Congress urges immediate release of polling booth-wise results for General Election 2024

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YSR Congress urges immediate release of polling booth-wise results for General Election 2024

A delegation of the YSRCP comprising of former ministers Ambati Rambabu and Merugu Nagarjuna, MLC Lella Appi Reddy and other leaders has met the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) of Andhra Pradesh Vivek Yadav at Secretariat on Tuesday and urged to publish Form 20s, which includes polling booth-wise results for the recently concluded General Election 2024 in the state.

The YSRCP delegation noted that despite the completion of the election and vote counting, polling details have not been made available in the required format. YSRCP highlighted inconsistencies in polling percentages announced at various stages of the election.

According to press notes released by the Election Commission of India (ECI), the polling percentage in Andhra Pradesh was recorded as 68.12% at 8 PM on 13th May 2024, 76.50% by 11:45 PM the same night, and later revised to 80.66% on 17th May 2024. However, YSRCP stated that the actual votes counted on Election Day surpassed these figures, reaching over 82%.

The delegation also reminded the CEO of a formal request for the voting percentage information submitted on 10th June 2024, for which no response has been received to date. YSRCP called for immediate action from the CEO and the Election Commission to publish Form 20s and resolve the inconsistencies in the reported polling data.

In another submission, YSRCP has requested the Election Commission to provide certain clarifications, particularly in light of the absence of Form 20 details, which would normally provide such data.

YSRCP has sought a detailed breakdown of the percentage of votes polled in each Assembly Constituency and each Parliamentary Constituency segment at different times—up to 8 PM (68.12%) and up to 11:45 PM (76.50%) on May 13th, 2024. The party has asked for information on the number of votes polled in each constituency after the official polling hours ended at 4 PM, 5 PM, or 6 PM, as per the Election Notification.

YSRCP has requested the names and numbers of polling stations where voting was allowed after the official closing time and clarification on how many voters were still in queue when polling was extended. In the absence of Form 20 details, the party has also requested clarification on the final number of votes polled in each Assembly Constituency and Parliamentary Constituency segment based on the Election Day counting records.

Addressing the media after the meeting at the Secretariat, former minister Ambati Rambabu mentioned that several institutions, including “Vote for Democracy,” had raised doubts about the conduct of the elections, strengthening their suspicions on election results. He emphasized that it was the Election Commission’s responsibility to clear these doubts and ensure transparency.

Former minister Nagarjuna expressed further concerns about the functioning of the Election Commission, noting that despite the increased reported voter turnout, the Election Commission had still not provided data for all 175 constituencies. He also highlighted issues with VVPAT-EVM mismatches and the security of EVM storage.

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Analysis: 2024 AP Vote Percentages and Key Takeaways

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Analysis: 2024 AP Vote Percentages and Key Takeaways

The 2024 Andhra Pradesh (AP) assembly elections brought a dramatic shift in the political landscape of Andhra Pradesh. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Jana Sena Party (JSP), and Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), won a staggering 164 out of 175 seats. In contrast, the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) was confined to just 11 seats. Despite this, the vote percentage data reveals several critical insights.

2024 AP Assembly Election Statistics

  • · Votes polled for Telugu Desam Party (TDP): 1,53,84,576 (45.60%)
  • · Votes polled for Jana Sena Party (JSP): 23,17,747 (6.85%)
  • · Votes polled for Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP): 9,53,977 (2.83%)
  • · Total votes polled for NDA (TDP + JSP + BJP): 1,86,56,300 (55.28%)
  • · Votes polled for YSR Congress Party (YSRCP): 1,32,84,134 (39.37%)
  • · Total votes polled for the INDIA alliance (Congress, CPI, CPM): 6,36,454 (1.89%)

2024 AP Lok Sabha Election Statistics

  • · Total votes polled for NDA: 1,77,74,004 (53.37%)
  • · Total votes polled for YSRCP: 1,31,74,874 (39.61%)
  • · Total votes polled for the INDIA alliance (Congress, CPI, CPM): 10,13,498 (3.05%)

2019 AP Assembly Election Statistics

  • · Total votes polled for YSR Congress Party (YSRCP): 1,56,88,569 (49.95%)
  • · Total votes polled for Telugu Desam Party (TDP): 1,23,04,668 (39.17%)
  • · Total votes polled for Jana Sena Party (JSP) and allies (BSP, CPI, CPM): 19,60,892 (6.24%)
  • · Total votes polled for Indian National Congress (INC): 3,68,810 (1.17%)

Key Takeaways

1. YSRCP’s Resilient Vote Share: Despite securing only 11 seats, YSRCP managed to garner 1,32,84,134 votes, translating to 39.37% of the vote share. This scenario is reminiscent of TDP’s 2019 performance where, despite winning only 23 seats, it secured 39.17% of the votes. This indicates a solid base for both parties, even in adverse conditions, demonstrating the resilience and dedicated support of their core voter base.

2. Risk of Complacency: While both TDP and YSRCP appear to have a consistent 39% vote share in challenging times, it would be imprudent to rely solely on this base. For example, in the 2023 Telangana assembly elections, the BRS secured 37.35% of votes but managed only 16.68% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This example illustrates the danger of complacency, suggesting that neither TDP nor YSRCP can take their core support for granted.

3. The Pivotal Role of Jana Sena Party (JSP): Although JSP secured a smaller vote share compared to TDP and YSRCP, its influence is significant. With approximately 6.85% of the votes, JSP can potentially sway the outcome in future elections. This makes JSP a crucial player capable of either bolstering or undermining the larger parties.

4. Cross-Voting Dynamics: The INDIA alliance, led by the Congress party, received more votes in the Lok Sabha polls compared to the assembly polls, despite both elections being held simultaneously. This indicates a pattern of cross-voting. The common perception that minorities might vote for YSRCP in assembly elections and Congress in Lok Sabha elections is only partially true. However, since both TDP and YSRCP received fewer votes in the Lok Sabha compared to the assembly, it suggests that cross-voting occurred from supporters of both parties to the Congress.

5. Implications for Future Elections: The voting patterns suggest that while core voter bases remain strong, the margins are thin and susceptible to shifts. The alliance strategies, voter sentiment towards the central and state governments, and the performance of smaller parties like JSP will significantly influence the electoral outcomes.

6. Strategic Alliances and Campaigns: The data underscores the importance of strategic alliances and effective campaigning. NDA’s comprehensive victory in AP indicates successful coalition management and voter outreach, which were pivotal in consolidating votes across the state.

More Important Takeaway: Solid Vote Banks – A Danger for Democracy?

Both TDP and YSRCP have demonstrated solid vote banks, securing around 39% of the votes even in elections where they faced significant defeats that can be called disasters. Similarly, JSP’s 6% vote share, achieved despite contesting only 21 seats, suggests a potentially larger actual vote bank for JSP. This means that approximately 85% of voters in AP are strongly aligned with TDP, YSRCP, or JSP, leaving only 15% as neutral voters who make decisions based on performance rather than party loyalty. This trend can be detrimental to the democratic process as it leads to a rigid voter base, reducing the influence of policies and performance in electoral decisions. More voters making choices based on party performance and policies would enhance the quality of democracy. It is high time, the people of Andhra Pradesh realize this !!!

– ZURAN (@CriticZuran)

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KK Survey: One Local Survey Surpassed National-Level Agencies

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KK Survey: One Local Survey Surpassed National-Level Agencies

In the high-stakes political arena of Andhra Pradesh, the results of the 2024 assembly elections have aligned remarkably closely with predictions made by a local survey agency, KK Survey. Established in 2019, KK Survey has once again demonstrated its predictive prowess, delivering insights that outperformed several national-level agencies.

Exit Poll Results and Actual Outcomes

As of now, the final results for the Andhra Pradesh assembly elections are as follows:

TDP: 136 seats
YSRCP: 10 seats
JSP: 21 seats
BJP: 7 seats

KK Survey had forecasted a landslide victory for the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance, predicting they would secure 161 seats, with the YSRCP confined to 14 seats. He also predicted accurately that JSP would win all 21 seats it contested. Although the actual seat count for the alliance is slightly lower, KK Survey’s prediction remains significantly closer to the final results compared to other major polling agencies.

Credibility and Track Record

KK Survey gained prominence with its accurate prediction in 2019, where it forecasted 135 seats for YSRCP, closely matching the actual result. This achievement established KK Survey as a credible source of political forecasting in Andhra Pradesh, especially given that several national-level agencies failed to accurately gauge YSRCP’s popularity in 2019.

Comparative Analysis of Other Polling Agencies

Peoples Pulse predicted the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance would win 111-135 seats, with YSRCP receiving 45-60 seats. While their prediction acknowledged a win for the alliance, the figures were not as precise as KK Survey’s.

Chanakya Strategies forecasted 114-125 seats for the alliance and 39-49 seats for YSRCP. Known for accurately predicting the NDA’s success in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, their prediction for Andhra Pradesh fell short of the actual outcomes.

RTV Exit Poll, led by former TV9 CEO Ravi Prakash, predicted 144 seats for the alliance and 31 for YSRCP. These numbers are relatively close but not as accurate as KK Survey’s.

Jan Mat Polls anticipated a win for YSRCP with 95-103 seats and 67-75 seats for the alliance. This prediction was significantly off the mark, showcasing a stark contrast to the actual results.

Aaraa projected 94-104 seats for YSRCP and 71-81 for the alliance. With a mixed track record and a history of overestimating YSRCP’s support, Aaraa’s predictions did not hold up against the final results.

Center for Psephological Studies (CPS) predicted YSRCP would win 97-108 seats and the alliance securing 66-78 seats. Although accurate in the 2019 AP elections, CPS’s predictions for 2024 were far from the actual outcome.

KK Survey’s exceptional accuracy in both the 2019 and 2024 Andhra Pradesh assembly elections has solidified its reputation as a reliable and insightful polling agency. By delivering predictions that closely matched the final results, KK Survey has proven that local expertise can sometimes surpass the analytical capabilities of national-level agencies.

Telugu360 is always open for the best and bright journalists. If you are interested in full-time or freelance, email us at Krishna@telugu360.com.

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