As earlier announced by Jagan, YSRCP MPs are planning to resign to their posts after this parliament sessions. As per Jagan, these members of parliament are resigning to further their fight on special category status. However Let us see what may happen once these MP resign.

There are actually several permutations and combinations. First one is YSRCP members resign to their posts but elections do not happen. In this case, probably Jagan may not get much political mileage because once it is confirmed that elections will not happen, people and opponent parties will start accusing Jagan that he made sure that his members will resign only after particular date so that they don’t have to face the elections and yet get some mileage. This propaganda will definitely hamper YSRCP prospects in next elections .

Second scenario- YSR CP MPs resign but “No confidence motion” is taken up by speaker in next sessions or any sessions before elections. If this happens it will be a big blow to YSRCP as everyone will start saying Jagan made a big blunder of his entire career. Because if such NCM happens and discussion happens in parliament and YSR CP members are not there in parliament to voice out their opinion- they will be left behind in the fight for special category status as whatever TDP MPs speak that will be there in records.

Third scenario – if no confidence motion is never taken up by Modi government in future and YSRCP MPs face elections before 2019 elections. In this scenario people may have soft corner for YSRCP as they resigned for the cause of people and so people may re-elect them in elections which will give a big boost to the party six months before the main and general elections. This is not a new strategy, as KCR has attempted and was successful in implementing this kind of strategy earlier. Also if this happens, it will put enormous pressure on TDP and Chandrababu Naidu to devise a new strategy to counter Jagan getting any political advantage.

Fourt scenario – the one in which both TDP and YSRCP members of parliament resign to the posts and face elections. It will not be really surprising if this happens too. Because, just one day before YSRCP giving no confidence motion, Chandrababu Naidu, made decision to give such motion from TDP itself. So to avoid third scenario happening, TDP also may resign to their posts and all 25 MPs (minus BJP MPs) face elections. This scenario may trigger debate in national media but election result will be mostly same and both parties may retain their seats. There may be plus or minus 1 to 3 seats gaining or losing for one of the parties but that will not have any impact on the overall political scenario except for giving some edge to the gained party in TV channel debates. If this happens, it will also be a big blow to Pawan Kalyan and his party as the focus of people will be shifted to fight of TDP and YSRCP

There are few more possible permutations and combinations like BJP completely taking a U turn and granting special category status to AP and contesting all the seats with or without alliance with janasena during by-elections. But the probability is too less for such scenarios to happen. There might be new political developments after Karnataka elections too. So, whether Jagan’s decision will prove right or wrong will be depending on the arising situation.

-ZURAN