As Andhra Pradesh eagerly awaits its assembly election results on June 4, a survey by Aara Mastan has sparked significant debate. The survey predicted a close contest between the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), composed of the TDP-JSP-BJP coalition. According to Aara Mastan’s 2024 prediction, YSRCP was expected to win 94-104 seats, while the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance was forecast to secure 71-81 seats. However, YSRCP got a disastrous performance and secured fewer seats than the Janasena Party, which contested only 21 out of 175 seats. Several critical errors in Aara Mastan’s survey have come to light, explaining its failure.
Ministers on the Line
One significant blunder in Aara Mastan’s survey was the projection that many current YSRCP ministers would lose their seats. Historically, no party in independent India has won consecutive terms with over 70% of its ministers defeated. Despite acknowledging this historical trend, Mastan’s survey predicted a YSRCP victory, a contradiction that raises questions about the survey’s credibility.
Questionable Vote Share Projections
In 2019, YSRCP secured a 49% vote share, a figure Mastan predicted would remain unchanged in 2024. This projection appears highly improbable given the widespread discontent among various demographics, including government employees, unemployed youth, and specific communities. Mastan himself noted that 70% of government employees voted against YSRCP in postal ballots. Other factors such as lack of development, delays in the Polavaram project, high unemployment, dissatisfaction among alcohol consumers, and fewer opportunities for construction workers further challenge the likelihood of maintaining a 49% vote share. Despite acknowledging the movement of many sections away from YSRCP, Mastan still predicted the party would retain its overall vote percentage, a significant inconsistency.
Women’s Votes and Welfare Schemes
Mastan’s survey also highlighted the large turnout of women voters, attributing it to welfare schemes. However, only 33% of the women voters are direct beneficiaries of these schemes. The voting preferences of the remaining 67% of women voters remain uncertain, adding another layer of unpredictability to the election outcome. This oversight casts further doubt on the accuracy of Mastan’s predictions.
Aara Mastan has staked his 16-year reputation on these controversial predictions, drawing considerable scrutiny. His conflicting statements and questionable data interpretations have led to widespread criticism. Aara Mastan’s survey failed miserably due to its contradictory projections, questionable vote share estimations, and oversight of critical voter demographics. These flaws have significantly undermined the survey’s credibility, turning a once-respected analyst into a subject of controversy and skepticism.
